After a 15 hour Toronto to Seoul flight, an airport change and a flight to Jeju, I was ready to sleep and play some poker. The first event was a single-reentry $15k NLHE, I busted that twice and lost a bet with Jesse Lonis about how many people would play the tournament (I took under). Not the start I wanted, but there’s always another tournament. I slept it off and was ready to play Event #2 $20k NLHE. It would take me less than one orbit to make a big mistake. On to the hand.
2025 Triton Jeju Event #2 $20k NLHE
Level 1: 500/1k/1k (SB/BB/BBA) everyone is 200k deep
It folds to me and I raise A♣️2♠️ to 3k on the button, Boris Angelov defends the big blind
Flop (7.5k) Q♠️T♥️4♦️: Boris checks, I bet 2k, Boris calls
Turn (11.5k) Q♠️T♥️4♦️J♥️ Boris checks, I bet 9k, Boris calls
River (29.5k) Q♠️T♥️4♦️J♥️2♣️ Boris checks, I bet 29.5k, Boris raises all-in, I fold
What was I thinking during the hand?
Preflop and the flop are standard; you always raise ace high on the button, and the flop is a pure c-bet. On the turn, I have a nuts advantage: I will almost always play straights and sets like this; my opponent will 3-bet preflop with TT+ and AK often, and he will usually checkraise sets/two pair on the flop. When constructing my turn bluffing range, I like to pick a variety of different hands so that I will be able to bluff all rivers. This includes straight draws (Ax, Kx, 9x, 8x), flush draws, and some total air like 6c5c. Generally when bluffing one-card straight draws, the computer prefers picking your worst kicker. Since A2 is my worst ace, I thought it would be a high frequency bet. On the river, I thought enough money had gone in on prior streets that I would have almost no showdown value. The ace in my hand matches some of my value bets like AA/AK/AQ, and the 2 blocks some rivered two pair like Q2 and J2. I have no showdown, I block some calls from my opponent, and I match my own value bets, so I bluffed.
What I got wrong
My preflop and flop logic were sound, but the turn is where my logic falls apart a little. A2 is a high frequency turn bet, but it’s not pure or close to it. The computer prefers bluffing our lowest kickers, but it prefers having a heart more than having a bad kicker. I should still bet my hand around half the time, and my bet size is used by the solver.
The river is where I blundered this hand. Many of my assumptions were wrong. I have a lot more showdown than I thought-- the solver has me winning the pot ~9% of the time I check. I beat A9 and turned flush draws that check-call the turn.
Betting full pot with A2 doesn’t really match my value bets. The only hands I have with an ace in them that value bet the river are AA/AQ/AK. AA and AQ are a small chunk of my value betting range and are thin value bets that can only bet half pot. AK is a hand that mixes a lot of sizes on the river, but also often overbets. A2 is too strong to bluff with a half-pot size, so if I wanted to match a value bet with a bluff, I’d prefer overbetting, like I’d often do with AK.
My logic on the turn was that I should bluff my worst ace high. I thought I should continue to bluff my worst ace high on the river, and I’d rather not have a heart. This logic is sound, as A3 without a heart almost always bluffs; however, A2 is no longer my worst Ax, not even close.
That A3 mixes checks on the river shows some more things I got wrong about this hand. An ace blocker is not a good bluff card for me. I’ll often have an ace in my hand when I have the nuts, but when the BB has an ace in their hand, they’ll often have A4/A9 that will check-fold. A3 has 1% equity on the river, and I thought hands with no showdown that weren’t missed flush draws would pure bluff the river. I have lots of strong hands in my range, and waving the white flag with no equity and reasonable blockers was not on my radar. However, non-flush draw hands with less than 1% equity, such as 8d6d, still purely give up.
Types of Errors I Made
Bluffing with too much showdown
Misunderstanding blocker effects
Misunderstanding range strategy
Sizing errors
Grade: I really made a meal out of this one-- four decisions total and two bad ones. My river play loses a lot of EV vs the solver. Since I was jet lagged, it was one of the smaller tournaments of the series and it only cost me 25% of starting stack, and it’s my inaugural POTD, I’ll generously give myself a D+.
Great review, just signed up 🫡
Great read, just signed up 🫡