POTD #2 Triton Paradise $500k: Three Bet Pot vs Alex Foxen

The first POTD featured a hand where I had an easy c-bet strategy and played it correctly, but got myself into trouble barreling a hand that was too weak on the turn and too strong on the river and lost around a quarter of my stack. In today’s hand, I also made an ambitious turn barrell that doesn’t lose EV, but the big error in the hand stems from me not understanding what my flop strategy should look like. Let's dive into it.

2024 Triton Paradise Million $500k Invitational

Day 2. Registration Closed. 46/96 remain.

Level 14 25k/50k/50k (SB/BB/BBA) I have 1.8M, average is 2.1M, staring stack is 1M

The Hand:

Hand History: Triton App

Hand History: MyPokerCoaching Replayer

It folds to Alex Foxen in the LJ he raises to 100k, I three bet A♦️J♠️ in the HJ to 270k, it folds back to Foxen who calls.

Flop (665k) Q♠️5♥️3♠️: Foxen checks, I bet 130k, Foxen calls.

Turn (925k) Q♠️5♥️3♠️ 3♦️: Foxen checks, I bet 350k, Foxen folds

What was I thinking during the hand?

Preflop AJo is a mix, I rolled an aggressive number and decided to three bet, but there were a couple factors that made me want to three bet more often than I would at equilibrium, Foxen is opening into Ferdinand and Wai Kin Yong who are strong experienced poker players, but less aggressive preflop than pros so I thought Foxen would be opening wider than normal. Wai Kin is a loose defender in the BB and AJo doesn’t play well in multiway pots. With this lineup, I’d rather three bet bluff more often with offsuit combos like AJo/ATo/KQo and flat more suited combos like A9s/KTs.

The flop is a dry flop and I thought I'd always bet dry flops as the preflop aggressor. I considered betting a variety of sizes, but settled on a split between b20 and b50, figured b50 with range only works if I can get pocket pairs to fold on the flop and I wasn’t sure if I could do that so I chose b20.

On the turn I thought having the Js made barreling the turn appealing for me because I blocked some FDs he might check raise all-in with and the Js allows me to bluff spade rivers. I didn’t think I’d three bet KJo preflop very often so I thought this was my worst hand with the Js, which also made it a good hand to bet. I didn’t think I needed to bet big on the turn because my value bets don't need much protection and the stack to pot ratio is so small I can comfortably shove any river for value. Betting 40% seemed like a size that could get some pocket pairs to fold but still left enough behind that my river shove would be capable of generating folds and I'd still be left with starting stack if I gave up on the river.

What I got wrong?

My preflop logic remains sound, my flop logic is lazy. A common mechanic in three bet pots is that specific ranks of cards matter a lot more. Dry boards are good for the three better, but queen high boards are not. I rarely three bet AQo or AQs because they are indifferent to calling a 4bet shove and I'd rather three bet a more polar range. Foxen will frequently call a three bet with AQ/KQ so he has top pair more often than me. He also never has AK, a hand I have a lot. AJ with a spade is the exact type of hand that has a lot of potshare, but has trouble calling a check raise. Betting the flop doesn’t lose EV from me, but pure cbetting this flop with all my middle of range will lose EV in the long run vs players who exploit this strategy.

On the turn I overweighted the value of having the Js in my hand, Foxen has the Js around 5% of the time, he continues vs b40 on the turn 70% of the time with the Js in his hand and 80% with range. It’s a card he rarely has and his hands with it fold more often than a random hand in his range. Betting doesn’t lose substantial EV, but if I bet hands like this too often, he should never fold pairs on the turn, fortunately I got him to fold this time.

Types of Errors I Made

Misunderstanding range strategy

Defaulting to lazy play

Misunderstanding blocker effects

Grade: Made a lazy obvious play that didn’t lose EV, but could be exploited in the future. Got Foxen to fold 77 and looked smart on stream. I’ll give this one a B.